Nigeria’s real Gross Domnestic Product (GDP) growth for 2026 is projected to range between 4.1 per cent and seven per cent.
This reflects an upward economic momentum driven by ongoing structural reforms and oil sector rebound. After 4.43 per cent GDP growth announced by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for second quarter, analysts said the second half of the year will continue to be shaped by domestic and external risks.
Achieving these milestones will largely depend on oil asset protection provided by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL) to sustain higher oil production and stronger performance in dominant sectors.
Nigeria’s ambitious seven per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for this year will not be a tea party. The World Bank projects growth at 4.4 per cent, citing stronger resilience and better-than-expected economic performance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts real GDP growth at 4.1 per cent;PwC Nigeria estimates economic expansion at 4.2 per cent, driven by improved crude oil production and key sector performance.
The Federal Government is targeting around 4.68 per cent, while domestic groups like the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) hold a more ambitious outlook of up to seven per cent.
One thing is standing out in these projections. It is the role to be played by the oil sector, which continually holds the ace on the economic performance especially in revenue inflows. The growth projection will therefore be largely driven supported by several factors including higher crude oil production and stronger performance in dominant sectors.
With crude oil export accounting for over 80 per cent on Nigeria’s FX earnings, the continuous flow of petrodollars will play a critical role in achieving the projected growth rate.
Analysts said that sustaining investments and increasing exploration activities were critical to achieving the target and boosting the nation’s reserves. It is equally important to develop a comprehensive framework for increasing production, expanding reserves and enhancing the sector’s contribution to national economic development.
Achieving these feats requires sustaining ongoing oil assets protection and security, infrastructure repairs as well as consistent industry reforms. The operations of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL) in the Niger Delta region is also key.
The Federal Government of Nigeria’s appointed Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL) to protect oil assets and ensure peace and stability in the Niger Delta comes to play.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had appointed TSSNL led by High Chief, Dr. Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, to protect Nigeria’s oil assets in the Niger Delta region. The apointment was to enable TSSNL, through its security operations, support the national economy in getting the full benefits of oil resources.
The TSSNL works in collaboration with other security outfits to achive its goals of securing oil assets and ensuring peace and stability in the Niger Delta region.
Tantita’s operations had ensured the security of oil pipelines, ensuring the uninterrupted flow of petroleum resources, and ensuring that Nigeria migrated from a position of constant loss management to stability, planning, growth and development.
The TSSNL operations have transformed the oil and gas landscape and allowed Nigeria to expand oil production quota and significantly cut rampant oil theft.
Its track record in mitigating risks associated with oil pipelines has positioned it as a reliable partner in preserving Nigeria’s economic backbone.
As stakeholders advocate for the continued collaboration with TSSNL, the imperative of securing oil infrastructure remains at the forefront of efforts to ensure the nation’s sustainable development.
In the development process of any society, certain assets contribute to the advancement of society and its people. These assets ensure economic or monetary benefits for the people. These assets could be regarded as operating assets, non-operating assets or leased assets, among others.
The impact of TSSNL’s operations was captured in a recent survey, with majority of the respondents attributing the de-escalation of security incidents in the Niger-Delta region to the pipeline surveillance operations executed by TSSNL.
Tantita’s milestone achievements
TSSNL’s Media Consultant, Dr Paul Bebenimibo said sustained efforts to protect oil pipelines and other critical infrastructure in the Niger Delta have contributed significantly to improved crude oil production, environmental safety and economic activities in the region.
Bebenimibo, who is also Special Adviser to Tantita Chairman, Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, spoke at the sidelines of an award presented to Tantita by Blueprint Newspapers in recognition of the company’s contributions to pipeline security and national development.
He said the award was further recognition that Tantita’s intervention in the Niger Delta was yielding tangible results, particularly in the fight against oil theft, pipeline vandalism and other illegal activities threatening Nigeria’s oil industry.
According to him, since Tantita assumed a major role in pipeline surveillance and protection in 2022, the company has recorded significant progress in securing oil facilities across the Niger Delta.
“Over the years, awards have been coming in, and that shows that Tantita is really doing the job very well,” Bebenimibo said. He noted that improved security around oil-producing communities had also created an environment conducive to the revival of legitimate economic activities, including fishing and farming.
Bebenimibo said Tantita remained committed to supporting efforts to increase Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day, stressing that effective protection of oil infrastructure was critical to achieving the target.
He attributed part of the company’s success to the leadership and extensive knowledge of the Niger Delta terrain possessed by its chairman, Tompolo.
According to him, Tompolo’s familiarity with the creeks and communities has enabled the company to develop strategies for effectively monitoring and securing oil infrastructure.
Bebenimibo disclosed that Tantita had deployed modern technology, including drones, to monitor activities in the creeks and detect illegal operations.
“We have acquired drones that are now picking up every illegal activity that is going on in the creek,” he said, adding that illegal operators were increasingly finding it difficult to evade the company’s surveillance efforts.
Beyond pipeline surveillance, Bebenimibo said Tantita had placed significant emphasis on youth empowerment as part of its strategy to tackle insecurity and discourage young people from engaging in oil theft, bunkering and other criminal activities. He disclosed that more than 60,000 youths were currently employed by the company and paid monthly.
He further said Tantita had introduced skills acquisition programmes and supported young people, women and other members of host communities through grants and other forms of economic empowerment.
“Tantita is not just employing the youths. It is also giving them skills and promoting their businesses in the area by giving grants to youths, women and men,” he said.
According to him, the combination of employment, skills development and community support had contributed to reducing criminal activities in parts of the Niger Delta.
Bebenimibo also highlighted the growing relationship between Tantita and the media, describing journalists as important partners in communicating the company’s activities and promoting transparency around its operations.
He disclosed that Tantita had built a correspondents’ secretariat in Delta State and was planning to extend similar structures to other states in the Niger Delta, as well as establish a facility for journalists at the national level.
He said the initiative was part of the company’s commitment to strengthening its relationship with the media and ensuring that its activities and contributions to national development were properly communicated to Nigerians.
Bebenimibo maintained that Tantita’s approach to security was not limited to enforcement, but also involved creating legitimate economic opportunities for youths and supporting host communities.
He expressed confidence that sustained collaboration among security agencies, oil companies, host communities, the media and private security contractors would further strengthen the protection of Nigeria’s oil infrastructure and contribute to increased national revenue.
Nigeria’s GDP rises 4.4% as oil sector rebounds
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said that the Nigerian economy expanded in real terms by 4.43 per cent year-on-year, YoY, in the second quarter of 2026, Q2’26 from 4.2 percent in Q2’25.
NBS disclosed this in its Gross Domestic Product, GDP, report for Q2’26 noting that both the oil and non-oil sectors grew in the review period, rising by 7.3 percent YoY and 4.3 percent YoY, respectively.
NBS said: “GDP grew by 4.43 percent YoY in real terms in the Q2’26, higher than the 4.23 percent recorded in the Q2’25. “During the quarter under review, agriculture grew by 4.39 percent, an improvement from the 2.82 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
On oil sector growth, NBS noted that the nation recorded an average daily oil production of 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q2’26, higher than the daily average production of 1.68 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2025 by 0.05 mbpd and higher than Q1’26 production volume of 1.55mbpd by 0.17 mbpd.
“The real growth of the oil sector was 7.31 (year-on-year) in Q2’26, indicating a decrease of 13.15 percent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (20.46 percent).
“Growth increased by 4.74 percent points when compared to Q1’26, which was 2.57 per cent. “On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 10.91 percent in Q2’26. “The Oil sector contributed 4.16 percent to the total real GDP in Q2’26, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 at 4.05 percent and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 3.92 percent”, NBS added.
Economic Outlook and reform journey
Examining Nigeria’s H1 and H2 2026 Economic Outlook and reform journey, PwC Partner, Chief Economist and Lead Strategy & West Africa, Olusegun Zaccheaus; Partner, Clients & Market Leader, West Market, Pedro Omontuemhen and Director, Akolawole Odunlami agreed that
macroeconomic conditions have continued to improve, supported by greater foreign-exchange stability, moderating inflation, stronger external reserves, higher revenue mobilisation and increased capital inflows.
Insighht from their “Unlocking Nigeria’s reform dividend From macroeconomic stabilisation to inclusive growth” revealed that the next step is to translate these gains into stronger household incomes, higher productivity, more jobs, and broader-based economic growth.
“Nigeria entered the second half of 2026 from a stronger macroeconomic position. Real GDP grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2026, supported by ICT, Finance & Insurance, Construction and Agriculture. Headline inflation moderated to 15.91 per cent in June, while the naira remained broadly stable at N1,379.68/US$. Gross foreign reserves rose by 38.3 per cent per cent year-on-year to US$51.46 billion in June, providing a stronger external buffer and supporting confidence in the foreign-exchange market,” they said.
On the other hand, household affordability remains under pressure, private-sector financing conditions are still tight, and growth remains concentrated in a relatively narrow group of sectors.
External risks have also increased, particularly through geopolitical tensions, energy-market volatility and weaker global growth. These factors will influence how quickly Nigeria can move from macroeconomic stabilisation to more inclusive and sustainable growth.
Also, Nigeria’s economic outlook remains positive, although the second half of the year will continue to be shaped by domestic and external risks. Inflation is expected to moderate, although food-price pressures, other supply-side shocks and pre-election spending could create upside risks.
Successfully navigating this next phase would require sustaining the operations of Tantita in oil assets protection. The move is expected to allow Nigeria to move beyond stabilisation and begin unlocking the broader reform dividend through stronger incomes, improved welfare and more inclusive economic growth.