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Stablecoin Neobanks Won’t Win on Transaction Volume Alone

 

By Alvin Kan, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet

SBI Group’s $68 million Series C, which priced Fasset at $1 billion in August, is not really a bet on stablecoins. It is a bet that a wallet can do a bank’s job in markets where banks already move too slowly for the money passing through them.

Most coverage of the round will call it a stablecoin story, but the true significance lies in controlling customer relationships. Failing to realise this distinction risks steering startups toward misleading benchmarks for years to come.

Yet transaction volume alone does not prove a model is durable. Stablecoins move large sums on thin margins, so the metrics that matter are retained balances, active usage, enterprise retention, and revenue per user. The strongest neobank model is one where the underlying blockchain is invisible: users receive paychecks, hold dollar balances, send cross-border transfers, and spend via payment cards without needing to think about crypto.

This model unlocks multiple revenue streams per user, from FX spreads and interchange fees to treasury services and, eventually, lending. However, cards and settlement mechanisms are not defensible moats. True, lasting value comes from owning the primary account relationship and capturing the recurring money flows that move through it.

Nigeria is where this plays out under real pressure. Its virtual asset tax framework levies a 1.5% stamp duty on conversions in both directions, taxing conversion-only providers twice on every cycle of money in and out. Providers earning across multiple revenue streams can absorb that friction. Providers running a simple swap business cannot, which is exactly why the account model matters more here than almost anywhere else.

We see the same pattern inside Bitget Wallet. Users are not opening the wallet to trade. They hold a stablecoin balance, spend it, get paid into it, and move it across borders. That is the same behaviour driving Fasset’s volume. It just runs through a different rail.

Two features we built over the past year prove it: In November, we connected stablecoin balances directly to over banks across Nigeria and Mexico. Users can off-ramp USDT or USDC from five blockchains directly into a bank account, with no peer-to-peer workaround required. In April, we launched a USDC-funded Mastercard dollar card across South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya, built with Immersve. It spends straight from a self-custodial balance. Together, these tools turn a stablecoin wallet into a primary account for everyday bills, business payments, and remittances. The user base they serve has just passed 100 million.

None of this guarantees which stablecoin neobanks will succeed long term. Fasset’s growth shows users and businesses are choosing to route real financial activity through these platforms, but transaction volume is not the ultimate test. What will matter in three years is how many of those 3 million wallets maintain balances month after month, and how many enterprises rely on these accounts for core payroll and treasury functions.

The lesson for stablecoin neobanks is not to chase volume for its own sake. Short-term volume is easy to buy through fee waivers and narrow spreads that competitors can quickly undercut. Building long-term user retention requires frictionless bank integrations, practical spending cards, and native treasury products. Investors have seen the potential, but long-term market leadership will be determined by user retention, not just monthly transaction headlines.

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